More likely it would be an RF-S 11-22mm based on the EF-M 11-22. I expect it will have a plastic mount (unlike the M11-22 but like the EF-S 10-18).
No one knows for sure, but I suspect this lens will be one of those released next year. There was a rumor of a new APS-C R body in 2Q23, and it would be logical to announce such a lens alongside that body.
Lots of folks (based on various facebook groups) are buying the EF 10-18 for use with their R7 and R10. No need to wait for a possible RF-S lens. There seem to be a lot of good bargains for a used one.